Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Second Quarter 2019

GAAP Highlights - Second Quarter 2019

  • Net income of $142 million, or $1.39 per share
  • Gross written premiums of $51 million
  • Shareholders’ equity per share of $67.35, a record high

Non-GAAP Highlights1 - Second Quarter 2019

  • Non-GAAP operating income1 of $141 million, or $1.38 per share
  • PVP1 of $54 million
  • Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity1 per share of $63.48 and non-GAAP adjusted book value1 per share of $88.67, both record highs

Share Repurchases

  • Common share repurchases of $111 million, or 2.5 million shares in second quarter 2019
  • On August 7, 2019, the Board of Directors approved an incremental $300 million in share repurchases

BlueMountain Acquisition

  • Assured Guaranty has executed a purchase agreement to acquire BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (BlueMountain), an alternative asset manager with $19.3 billion in assets under management, and its associated entities for $160 million. Assured Guaranty will contribute $60 million of cash to BlueMountain at closing and intends to contribute an additional $30 million in cash within a year from closing.

 

Category:

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 4:30 pm EDT

Dateline:

HAMILTON, Bermuda

Public Company Information:

NYSE:
AGO

HAMILTON, Bermuda--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2019 (second quarter 2019).

1 Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.” When a financial measure is described as "operating," it is a non-GAAP financial measure.

“Assured Guaranty performed well in the second quarter, once again achieving record highs per share in shareholders’ equity, non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value. We saw solid new business production in an extremely challenging interest rate and credit spread environment. And we achieved a milestone by bringing the below-investment-grade portion of our insured portfolio down to 3.8%, the first time we have reported a BIG percentage that low in almost 10 years,” said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO of Assured Guaranty.

“We are excited about our agreement to acquire BlueMountain, a seasoned and scaled asset management firm with a compatible credit culture, valuable business synergies and the ability to diversify our revenue sources while making a meaningful contribution to Assured Guaranty’s profitability. We are looking forward to Andrew Feldstein, the current CEO of BlueMountain, coming on board as our Chief Investment Officer and Head of Asset Management.”

Summary Financial Results

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

Quarter Ended

 

June 30,

 

2019

 

2018

 

 

 

 

GAAP Highlights

 

 

 

Net income

$

142

 

 

$

75

 

Net income per diluted share

1.39

 

 

0.67

 

Weighted average diluted shares

101.9

 

 

112.9

 

Gross written premiums (GWP)

51

 

 

393

 

 

 

 

 

Non-GAAP Highlights(1)

 

 

 

Non-GAAP operating income(1)

141

 

 

74

 

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable

interest entities (FG VIE consolidation) included in non-GAAP operating

income

6

 

 

(4

)

Non-GAAP operating income(1) per diluted share

1.38

 

 

0.66

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP

operating income per diluted share

0.05

 

 

(0.03

)

Present value of new business production (PVP)(1)

54

 

 

454

 

Gross par written

4,183

 

 

14,571

 

Summary Financial Results (continued)

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

As of

 

June 30, 2019

 

December 31, 2018

 

Amount

 

Per Share

 

Amount

 

Per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity

$

6,722

 

 

$

67.35

 

 

$

6,555

 

 

$

63.23

 

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (1)

6,335

 

 

63.48

 

 

6,342

 

 

61.17

 

Non-GAAP adjusted book value (1)

8,849

 

 

88.67

 

 

8,922

 

 

86.06

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP operating shareholders'

equity

12

 

 

0.12

 

 

3

 

 

0.03

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP adjusted book value

(2

)

 

(0.02

)

 

(15

)

 

(0.15

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Common shares outstanding

99.8

 

 

 

 

103.7

 

 

 

___________________________________________

(1) Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

Second Quarter Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income for second quarter 2019 increased to $142 million, from $75 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2018 (second quarter 2018) mainly due to changes in: loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE), fair value of financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIEs), foreign exchange rates and other income items, as described below.

  • Loss and LAE was a benefit of $1 million in second quarter 2019, which consisted of a benefit for United States (U.S.) residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions that was partially offset by an increase in public finance losses. Loss and LAE was a loss of $44 million in second quarter 2018, which was primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures.
  • FG VIE gains were $33 million in second quarter 2019, primarily attributable to higher recoveries on second lien U.S. RMBS FG VIEs' assets, compared with FG VIE gains of $2 million in second quarter 2018.
  • Foreign exchange losses were $14 million in second quarter 2019, compared with losses of $36 million in second quarter 2018. Foreign exchange gains and losses relate primarily to remeasurement of premiums receivable and are mainly due to changes in the exchange rate of the British pound sterling relative to the U.S. dollar.
  • Fair value gains on committed capital securities (CCS) recorded in other income were $19 million in second quarter 2019 and were primarily due to widening of spreads of comparable securities relative to changes in treasury yields during the quarter, compared with fair value losses on CCS of $1 million in second quarter 2018.
  • Commutation gains recorded in other income were $1 million in second quarter 2019, compared with commutation losses of $18 million in second quarter 2018 related to the transaction closed on June 1, 2018 with Syncora Guarantee Inc. (SGI) (SGI Transaction).

These increases were offset in part by changes in fair value of credit derivatives, lower net earned premiums and a higher effective tax rate as described below.

  • Fair value losses on credit derivatives were $8 million in second quarter 2019, primarily due to changes in the Company's spreads, partially offset by price improvements on the underlying collateral, compared with gains of $48 million in second quarter 2018 which were primarily attributable to price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company's insured credit default swaps. Except for credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of that portfolio.
  • Net earned premiums were $112 million in second quarter 2019, compared with $136 million in second quarter 2018; the decline was due to lower accelerations from refundings and terminations, which were $20 million in second quarter 2019, compared with $39 million in second quarter 2018.
  • The effective tax rate in second quarter 2019 was 22% compared with 13% in second quarter 2018. The effective tax rate fluctuates from period to period based on the proportion of income in different tax jurisdictions.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)

(in millions)

 

Quarter Ended

 

June 30,

 

2019

 

2018

Revenues:

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

$

112

 

 

$

136

 

Net investment income

110

 

 

98

 

Net realized investment gains (losses)

8

 

 

(2

)

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives

(8

)

 

48

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs

33

 

 

2

 

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement

(14

)

 

(36

)

Other income (loss)

25

 

 

(26

)

Total revenues

266

 

 

220

 

Expenses:

 

 

 

Loss and LAE

(1

)

 

44

 

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs

4

 

 

4

 

Interest expense

22

 

 

24

 

Other operating expenses

60

 

 

62

 

Total expenses

85

 

 

134

 

Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in net earnings of investees

181

 

 

86

 

Equity in net earnings of investees

1

 

 

1

 

Income (loss) before income taxes

182

 

 

87

 

Provision (benefit) for income taxes

40

 

 

12

 

Net income (loss)

$

142

 

 

$

75

 

Economic Loss Development

Total economic loss development was a benefit of $37 million in second quarter 2019, which primarily consisted of a $118 million benefit in U.S. RMBS, partially offset by increased U.S. public finance loss, mainly for certain Puerto Rico exposures.

The economic benefit in second lien U.S. RMBS was $99 million in second quarter 2019, primarily attributable to higher projected recoveries for previously charged-off loans, improved performance and loss mitigation efforts. The economic benefit for first lien U.S. RMBS was $19 million in second quarter 2019, primarily attributable to higher excess spread on certain transactions supported by large portions of fixed rate assets (either originally fixed or modified to be fixed) and with insured floating rate debt linked to London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), which decreased in second quarter 2019. This benefit was partially offset by an increase in public finance losses primarily related to Puerto Rico exposures. The economic development attributable to changes in discount rates was a benefit of $1 million in second quarter 2019. Economic loss development differs from loss and LAE reported in income in any given period due to the consideration of unearned premium reserve in the calculation of loss and LAE.

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)

(in millions)

 

 

Net Expected

Loss to be

Paid (Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2019

 

Economic Loss

Development/

(Benefit)

 

Losses (Paid)/

Recovered

 

Net Expected

Loss to be

Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

697

 

 

$

84

 

 

$

(9

)

 

$

772

 

U.S. RMBS

 

237

 

 

(118

)

 

43

 

 

162

 

Other structured finance

 

29

 

 

(3

)

 

 

 

26

 

Total

 

$

963

 

 

$

(37

)

 

$

34

 

 

$

960

 

_______________________________________________

(1) Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).

New Business Production

GWP relates to both financial guaranty insurance and non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. Credit derivatives are accounted for at fair value and therefore not included in GWP. Financial guaranty GWP includes amounts collected upfront on new business written, the present value of future premiums on new business written (discounted at risk free rates), as well as the effects of changes in the estimated lives of transactions in the inforce book of business. Non-financial guaranty GWP is recorded as premiums are received.

Non-GAAP PVP includes amounts collected upfront and estimated future installments on all new business at the time of issuance, discounted at 6% for all contracts, whether in insurance or credit derivative form.

New Business Production

(in millions)

 

Quarter Ended June 30,

 

2019

 

2018

 

GWP

 

PVP (1)

 

Gross Par

Written (1)

 

GWP

 

PVP (1)

 

Gross Par

Written (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance - U.S.

$

43

 

 

$

44

 

 

$

3,657

 

 

$

170

 

 

$

234

 

 

$

10,675

 

Public finance - non - U.S.

12

 

 

7

 

 

299

 

 

55

 

 

53

 

 

3,345

 

Structured finance - U.S.

(4

)

 

3

 

 

227

 

 

158

 

 

158

 

 

393

 

Structured finance - non-U.S.

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

9

 

 

158

 

Total

$

51

 

 

$

54

 

 

$

4,183

 

 

$

393

 

 

$

454

 

 

$

14,571

 

______________________________________________

(1) PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on "close date," when the transaction settles. Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

GWP and PVP for second quarter 2018 included the assumption of substantially all of the insured portfolio of SGI which was the primary driver of the variance in GWP, PVP and gross par written between second quarter 2019 and second quarter 2018. The components of new business generated by the SGI Transaction in second quarter 2018 are presented below.

Assumed SGI Insured Portfolio (1)

(in millions)

 

 

GWP

 

PVP

 

 

 

 

Financial

Guaranty

 

Financial

Guaranty

 

Credit

Derivatives

 

Total

 

Gross Par

Written

Public Finance—U.S.

 

$

123

 

 

$

118

 

 

$

67

 

 

$

185

 

 

$

7,559

 

Public Finance—non-U.S.

 

50

 

 

38

 

 

12

 

 

50

 

 

3,345

 

Structured Finance—U.S.

 

157

 

 

156

 

 

 

 

156

 

 

349

 

Structured Finance—non-U.S.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

 

Total

 

$

330

 

 

$

312

 

 

$

79

 

 

$

391

 

 

$

11,272

 

_________________________________

(1) On a GAAP basis, in second quarter 2018, the SGI Transaction included transactions with $131 million in expected losses (discounted at a risk-free rate). On a non-GAAP basis, the SGI Transaction included transactions with expected losses of $83 million (discounted at 6%, consistent with the PVP discount rate).

In second quarter 2019, Assured Guaranty once again guaranteed the majority of the insured U.S. public finance par and number of transactions issued, and had an average rating on new business of A-, based on par.

For the fifteenth consecutive quarter, the Company generated non-U.S. GWP and PVP. In second quarter 2019, the Company guaranteed a debt refinancing of Spanish solar plants, the first wrapped issuance in Spain since the financial crisis, as well as a Scottish housing association transaction.

Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Non-GAAP operating income was $141 million in second quarter 2019, compared with $74 million in second quarter 2018. Non-GAAP operating income increased mainly due to lower losses and higher FG VIE gains in second quarter 2019, as well as higher commutation and debt extinguishment losses in second quarter 2018. This was offset in part by lower net earned premiums and a higher effective tax rate.

Common Share Repurchases

Summary of Share Repurchases

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

  

Amount

 

Number of

Shares

 

Average Price

Per Share

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

2019 (January 1 - March 31)

  

$

 

79.4

 

1.909

 

$

41.62

2019 (April 1 - June 30)

  

 

110.6

 

2.519

 

 

43.89

2019 (July 1 - August 7)

  

 

57.5

 

1.317

 

 

43.59

Total 2019

  

$

 

247.5

 

5.745

 

$

43.07

From 2013 through August 7, 2019, the Company repurchased a total of 100.3 million common shares at an average price of $29.55, representing approximately 52% of the total shares outstanding when the repurchase program began in 2013. On February 27, 2019, the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of $300 million of common shares and on August 7, 2019 authorized the repurchase of another $300 million of common shares. The remaining authorization to purchase common shares as of August 7, 2019 was $450 million. These repurchases can be made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions.

As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.

Insurance Company Subsidiaries’ Share Repurchases

In May 2019, the Maryland Insurance Administration approved and in June 2019 Assured Guaranty Corp. implemented the repurchase of $100 million of its shares of common stock from Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc.

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)

(in millions)

 

 

As of

 

 

June 30, 2019

 

December 31, 2018

Assets

 

 

 

 

Investment portfolio:

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value

 

$

9,574

 

 

$

10,089

 

Short-term investments, at fair value

 

1,159

 

 

729

 

Other invested assets

 

60

 

 

55

 

Total investment portfolio

 

10,793

 

 

10,873

 

Cash

 

190

 

 

104

 

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable

 

866

 

 

904

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

106

 

 

105

 

Salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

580

 

 

490

 

FG VIEs' assets, at fair value

 

526

 

 

569

 

Other assets

 

520

 

 

558

 

Total assets

 

$

13,581

 

 

$

13,603

 

Liabilities and shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

3,387

 

 

$

3,512

 

Loss and LAE reserve

 

1,102

 

 

1,177

 

Long-term debt

 

1,233

 

 

1,233

 

Credit derivative liabilities

 

224

 

 

209

 

FG VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value

 

446

 

 

517

 

FG VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value

 

105

 

 

102

 

Other liabilities

 

362

 

 

298

 

Total liabilities

 

6,859

 

 

7,048

 

Shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

1

 

 

1

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

 

 

86

 

Retained earnings

 

6,425

 

 

6,374

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

295

 

 

93

 

Deferred equity compensation

 

1

 

 

1

 

Total shareholders' equity

 

6,722

 

 

6,555

 

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

 

$

13,581

 

 

$

13,603

 

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures, along with the effect of FG VIE consolidation, provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company. However, the Company does not own such VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under its financial guaranty insurance contract. Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to remove FG VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Wherever possible, the Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Non-GAAP operating income adjusted for the effect of FG VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3) growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Non-GAAP Operating Income

Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating income measure. Non-GAAP operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Summary Reconciliation of

GAAP Net Income to Non-GAAP Operating Income

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended June 30,

 

 

2019

 

2018

 

 

Total

 

Per Diluted

Share

 

Total

 

Per Diluted

Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income (loss)

 

$

142

 

 

$

1.39

 

 

$

75

 

 

$

0.67

 

Less pre-tax adjustments:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Realized gains (losses) on investments

 

8

 

 

0.08

 

 

(2

)

 

(0.01

)

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value

gains (losses) on credit derivatives

 

(12

)

 

(0.12

)

 

44

 

 

0.39

 

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS

 

19

 

 

0.19

 

 

(1

)

 

(0.01

)

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on

remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and

LAE reserves

 

(12

)

 

(0.12

)

 

(34

)

 

(0.30

)

Total pre-tax adjustments

 

3

 

 

0.03

 

 

7

 

 

0.07

 

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments

 

(2

)

 

(0.02

)

 

(6

)

 

(0.06

)

Non-GAAP operating income

 

$

141

 

 

$

1.38

 

 

$

74

 

 

$

0.66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP operating income

 

$

6

 

 

$

0.05

 

 

$

(4

)

 

$

(0.03

)

Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and

Effect of FG VIE Consolidation

(in millions)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

Quarter Ended

 

 

June 30, 2019

 

June 30, 2018

 

 

Non-GAAP

Operating

Income

Adjustments

(1)

 

Effect of FG

VIE

Consolidation

(2)

 

Non-GAAP

Operating

Income

Adjustments

(1)

 

Effect of FG

VIE

Consolidation

(2)

Adjustments to revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

$

 

 

$

(11

)

 

$

 

 

$

(3

)

Net investment income

 

 

 

(1

)

 

 

 

(1

)

Net realized investment gains (losses)

 

8

 

 

 

 

(2

)

 

 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives

 

(12

)

 

 

 

43

 

 

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs

 

 

 

33

 

 

 

 

2

 

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on

remeasurement

 

(12

)

 

 

 

(34

)

 

 

Other income (loss)

 

19

 

 

 

 

(1

)

 

 

Total revenue adjustments

 

3

 

 

21

 

 

6

 

 

(2

)

Adjustments to expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss expense

 

 

 

14

 

 

(1

)

 

3

 

Total expense adjustments

 

 

 

14

 

 

(1

)

 

3

 

Pre-tax adjustments

 

3

 

 

7

 

 

7

 

 

(5

)

Tax effect of adjustments

 

2

 

 

1

 

 

6

 

 

(1

)

After-tax adjustments

 

$

1

 

 

$

6

 

 

$

1

 

 

$

(4

)

_______________________________________________

(1) The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the amounts recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of operations that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income.

(2) The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts included in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process.

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value

Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS, that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, along with other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Non-GAAP adjusted book value is non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.

3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.

Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity to

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders' Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

As of

 

June 30, 2019

 

December 31, 2018

 

Total

 

Per Share

 

Total

 

Per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity

$

6,722

 

 

$

67.35

 

 

$

6,555

 

 

$

63.23

 

Less pre-tax adjustments:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains

(losses) on credit derivatives

(85

)

 

(0.85

)

 

(45

)

 

(0.44

)

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS

84

 

 

0.84

 

 

74

 

 

0.72

 

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio

excluding foreign exchange effect

478

 

 

4.79

 

 

247

 

 

2.39

 

Less taxes

(90

)

 

(0.91

)

 

(63

)

 

(0.61

)

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity

6,335

 

 

63.48

 

 

6,342

 

 

61.17

 

Pre-tax adjustments:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs

106

 

 

1.06

 

 

105

 

 

1.01

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future

revenue

196

 

 

1.97

 

 

204

 

 

1.96

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial

guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be

expensed

2,932

 

 

29.37

 

 

3,005

 

 

28.98

 

Plus taxes

(508

)

 

(5.09

)

 

(524

)

 

(5.04

)

Non-GAAP adjusted book value

$

8,849

 

 

$

88.67

 

 

$

8,922

 

 

$

86.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP operating shareholders'

equity

$

12

 

 

$

0.12

 

 

$

3

 

 

$

0.03

 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP adjusted book value

$

(2

)

 

$

(0.02

)

 

$

(15

)

 

$

(0.15

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of the period

99.8

 

 

 

 

103.7

 

 

 

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated revenue for contracts other than financial guaranty insurance contracts (such as non-financial guaranty insurance contracts and credit derivatives). There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from these contracts, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, discounted, in each case, at 6%. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses) may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP

(in millions)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

 

June 30, 2019

 

 

Public Finance

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

U.S.

 

Non - U.S.

 

U.S.

 

Non - U.S.

 

Total

GWP

 

$

43

 

 

$

12

 

 

$

(4

)

 

$

 

 

$

51

 

Less: Installment GWPand other GAAP

adjustments(1)

 

(1

)

 

12

 

 

(4

)

 

 

 

7

 

Upfront GWP

 

44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

44

 

Plus: Installment premium PVP

 

 

 

7

 

 

3

 

 

 

 

10

 

PVP

 

$

44

 

 

$

7

 

 

$

3

 

 

$

 

 

$

54

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

 

June 30, 2018

 

 

Public Finance

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

U.S.

 

Non - U.S.

 

U.S.

 

Non - U.S.

 

Total

GWP

 

$

170

 

 

$

55

 

 

$

158

 

 

$

10

 

 

$

393

 

Less: Installment GWPand other GAAP

adjustments(1)

 

20

 

 

32

 

 

5

 

 

1

 

 

58

 

Upfront GWP

 

150

 

 

23

 

 

153

 

 

9

 

 

335

 

Plus: Installment premium PVP(2)

 

84

 

 

30

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

119

 

PVP

 

$

234

 

 

$

53

 

 

$

158

 

 

$

9

 

 

$

454

 

_______________________________________________

(1) Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

(2) Includes PVP of credit derivatives assumed in the SGI Transaction in second quarter 2018.

Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time (8:30 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Thursday, August 8, 2019. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609 (International). A replay of the call will be made available through November 7, 2019. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10133697. The replay will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's June 30, 2019 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/agldata, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolio, investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the same page of its website:

  • “Public Finance Transactions in 2Q 2019,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in second quarter 2019, and
  • “Structured Finance Transactions at June 30, 2019,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations the “June 30, 2019 Equity Investor Presentation.” Furthermore, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO) Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com .

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's calculations of non-GAAP adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates or Assured Guaranty’s loss experience; the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty's investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its contracts written in credit default swap form, and variable interest entities; changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union; the possibility that Assured Guaranty's planned acquisition (BlueMountain Acquisition) of all of the outstanding equity interests in BlueMountain and its associated entities fails to close or is delayed due to the failure to fulfill or waive closing conditions, including the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals and client consents, or fails to close or is delayed for other reasons; the impact of the announcement of Assured Guaranty's planned BlueMountain Acquisition on the Company and its relationships with its investors, regulators, rating agencies, employees and the obligors it insures and on the business of BlueMountain and its relationships with its clients and employees; the possibility that regulators, clients of BlueMountain or others will impose conditions on their approvals or consents of the planned BlueMountain Acquisition or not provide approvals or consents Assured Guaranty anticipated receiving and receipt of which is not a condition to closing; the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate the business of BlueMountain after closing; the possibility that acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty, including its anticipated BlueMountain Acquisition, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes; other risk factors identified in AGL's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of August 7, 2019, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.

Contact:

Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
rtucker@agltd.com


Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
212-408-6042
adurani@agltd.com